For many years this author has regarded most forecasts with a healthy scepticism. Nevertheless, companies and managers need forecasts in order to make any plans at all and this paper is intended to help that process. Rather than make our own forecasts (which on past experience are more likely to be wrong than right) this collects as many published forecasts as possible.

They are not just for the tire (tyre) industry (in fact few of them are) but for various economies, industries such as vehicle manufacture, and key raw materials such as oil and rubber. The date and the source of each forecast is given to allow some judgement to be made as to its reliability.

Unfortunately the highly synchronised collapse of world markets in
2008 has left most economists with egg on their faces and forecasters struggling to make sense of the new reality. According to Sergio Marchionne, the head of Fiat, when asked to forecast sales in 2009 and 2010, "I honestly do not know. It's not that I refuse to make a projection. I just don't have a reliable context in which to make a projection."

In the current uncertainty, no forecasts can be trusted so this collection of forecasts will remain in abeyance until more normal times return, hopefully before the end of 2010.

 

An Apology
Half the world uses the word "tire" whilst the other half uses "tyre". Unfortunately search engines don't realise that they mean the same. In order to be recognised by the search machines we have had to resort to the irritating strategy of duplicating the two words. Sorry!

For many years this author has regarded most forecasts with a healthy scepticism. Nevertheless, companies and managers need forecasts in order to make any plans at all and this paper is intended to help that process. Rather than make our own forecasts (which on past experience are more likely to be wrong than right) this collects as many published forecasts as possible.

They are not just for the tire (tyre) industry (in fact few of them are) but for various economies, industries such as vehicle manufacture, and key raw materials such as oil and rubber. The date and the source of each forecast is given to allow some judgement to be made as to its reliability.

Unfortunately the highly synchronised collapse of world markets in
2008 has left most economists with egg on their faces and forecasters struggling to make sense of the new reality. According to Sergio Marchionne, the head of Fiat, when asked to forecast sales in 2009 and 2010, "I honestly do not know. It's not that I refuse to make a projection. I just don't have a reliable context in which to make a projection."

In the current uncertainty, no forecasts can be trusted so this collection of forecasts will remain in abeyance until more normal times return, hopefully before the end of 2010.

 

An Apology
Half the world uses the word "tire" whilst the other half uses "tyre". Unfortunately search engines don't realise that they mean the same. In order to be recognised by the search machines we have had to resort to the irritating strategy of duplicating the two words. Sorry!